Let’s take a new approach to contrast two prevalent media planning theories for advertising.
Movable Middles Theory
The consumers who are up in the air about choosing your brand are most likely to be the ones who respond to your advertising. (Maybe in an election year we should call them the “swing voters”.) Literally Movable Middles are those with a 20-80% probability of choosing your brand.
- Main proponent: MMA Global
- Media implication: target audiences rich in Movable Middles, sacrificing some reach for impact.
Broad Reach Theory
The less likely someone is to buy your brand without advertising, the more upside there is if they are exposed to advertising. Marketers will often target non-buyers, using this mental model, thinking they have nowhere to go but up.
- Main proponents: Ehrenberg-Bass, Les Binet.
- Media implication: spread ad impressions as broadly as possible to maximize reach.
Evaluating the Theories
Who’s right? These two theories of responsiveness to advertising are easy to express algebraically and then contrast.
- The Movable Middles theory is based on expected incrementality being a function of [p*(1-p)], where “p” is the baseline propensity of a given consumer choosing your brand without seeing your ads. (We’ll go into why we chose this expression below…)
- The broad reach theory implies expected incrementality is just based on the expression (1-p), where p is again the baseline probability of buying.
Graphing the Theories…a stark contrast
We can graph these competing theories to easily show where their predictions are different and where they are similar. The orange curve represents the Movable Middle theory of ad responsiveness and the green line represents the “broad reach” theory.
The contrast is stark… Movable Middles ad responsiveness theory peaks when someone is 50/50 about buying your brand (and is at its lowest for those with 0% propensity for your brand.) Broad reach ad responsiveness theory says, “no way!”; ad responsiveness is HIGHEST when their baseline probability of buying you is 0.
The gray shaded area (0-20% propensity for your brand) is particularly critical because that is where 90%+ of consumers reside for a typical brand. Knowing which theory is right can advise up to 90% of your ad impressions!
Experimental Evidence
What does experimental evidence show? The answer so far is that the Movable Middle theory (orange curve) has proven to be correct in every one of our experiments. In all 11 experiments, Movable Middles have been more responsive… 2.2X to 23X… vs. Low Loyals (those who are mostly in the 0-5% range in their propensity to buy your brand. (Experiments included retail, financial services, CPG, web-based businesses.) What strengthens this experimental evidence is that this is almost identical to what Movable Middle math would predict.
Origin of Movable Middle Math
The expression that Movable Middle theory is based on… [p*(1-p)]… is not a guess. Many academics and MTA practitioners use a logit function (an S-shaped curve that goes from 0 to 100% propensity) to describe how marketing exposure improves a consumer’s odds of choosing your brand. Where is the greatest ad responsiveness? The expression [p*(1-p)] is simply the first derivative of the logit function, maximized at 50% propensity, which answers this question and is proving to be extremely accurate.
Addressing New Customer Acquisition
But what about winning new customers? Some marketers have countered, “Wait, doesn’t targeting the Movable Middle only increase sales response among current customers? How about winning new buyers?” Our experiments found that brand penetration and new buyer acquisition rates are highest when targeting audiences rich in Movable Middles. Again, low loyals have close to 0 responsiveness to advertising, both in terms of sales and becoming a new buyer.
This finding is no fluke. As I extend the Movable Middle math, this is actually what the model would predict. (Contact me to learn why joel@rubinsonpartners.com).
Importance of Targeting Movable Middles
Marketers often fail on one of their most powerful growth levers… getting the most productivity and new buyers out of their advertising. Shifting from broad reach to Movable Middle thinking, even for “upper funnel” advertising, should give Marketers the evidence they need to win over the CFO and gain bigger ad budgets in order to drive more growth.
Thought stimulators (please add your comments!)
- Do you find the experimental evidence supporting the Movable Middles theory compelling?
- Do you think that targeting audiences rich in Movable Middles is practical advice for your business?
- Would you consider shifting from Broad Reach to Movable Middle thinking for upper funnel/brand campaigns?